Presidential Science Panel says 90,000 could croak this year from the swine flooos

Close to HALF the Country could be infected.

Coming soon to an ER near you.

Read it and weep HERE.

NOW:

The carnage could start as early as next month, which is little comfort to those most at risk since a vaccine will not be ready until mid-October and it will take weeks to get people fully immunized, probably because it comes in a SERIES of shots. (Now they say two, but last week it was three.)

Then there was this reassuring quote from THE pandemic expert, the guy who wrote the book on flu pandemics:

“The Northern Hemisphere medical care requirements for the next six months are a train wreck waiting to happen,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy in Minneapolis. “In the fall, even if nothing else changes in terms of the virus’s severity and our preparedness, it’s going to be a real challenge.”

A Nation of Dumbasses

Birthplace of our President. Really, no kidding.

According to a new Public Policy Poll, 10% of Americans either believe Hawaii is not part of the United States or are unsure about it. (See, Q4 on Page 2 of release.)  Jesus H. Limping Christ on a Fucking Raft!  We deserve whatever awful fate awaits us.  Perhaps the swine flus will kill off a lot of stupid people and ultimately save us from ourselves.  One can only hope.

Government Scientists: “…scared to death because they see just how intelligent this virus is.”

Biotech Drug Company Preparing for Worst Case H1N1 Flu Scenario Using Extremely Promising New Technology

“…Off the record, in a deep conversation in a dark bar, a government scientist researching pandemic flu would say that they’re scared to death because they see just how intelligent this virus is…”

Full Text HERE

1918 Pandemic Poster

LOS ANGELES, CA–(Marketwire – July 31, 2009) – BioMedReports, the news portal covering the biomedical news and financial sector, in a special report about the H1N1 flu pandemic, is reporting that CEL-SCI Corporation (NYSE Amex: CVM) is positioned to help combat the virus after diligently preparing for the worst case scenario with promising results.  CEL-SCI’s preclinical studies have demonstrated that vaccines utilizing its proprietary L.E.A.P.S. (Ligand Epitope Antigen Presentation System) technology potentially induce protection against illnesses such as the swine influenza.  L.E.A.P.S. helps direct the immune response to the vaccine epitope and company scientists have been working to ensure that it will be available should the virus continue to spread and mutate.

Orange County men’s jail closed because of swine flu

This is just the beginning.  In a pandemic, when half the prisoners have it, see how many guards will show up for work, or if any contractors (health, food service) will want to provide services to a jail full of a deadly infectious disease.

From the Los Angeles Times

Swine flu keeps Orange County men’s jail under quarantine

The original closure was ordered Friday evening after five inmates had been infected. Since then, others have contracted the virus, a county health agency said.

By Tami Abdollah

July 29, 2009

Riot at a prison in Mexico

Orange County men’s jail will remain closed today as part of a continuing, temporary quarantine. The closure was ordered after five inmates were infected with swine flu last week and more were diagnosed over the weekend, officials said.  Three inmates were diagnosed with the H1N1 virus Thursday, and two more on Friday. Those cases prompted the jail’s quarantine at 6 p.m. Friday, said Orange County sheriff’s spokesman John McDonald.  On Monday, the county’s Health Care Agency identified “additional positives” that made it necessary to extend the quarantine. They would not say how many, said Deanne Thompson, a spokeswoman for the agency. 

Pig Flu Pandemic: Blame it on the Kids

It’s all the fault of the little rugrats.  They are super-transmitters, apparently.

Pig Flu News

• Argentine fear over flu spreads, as accusations of incompetence and numbers-rigging plague the government.
• The WHO – stop testing for H1N1 – assume it’s pig flu.  Great way to fudge the numbers, no?
• Health Officials in the UK expect 100,000 NEW cases PER DAY by August.
• UN says its needs $1 billion to fight flu in poor nations. (Rush Limbaugh will probably advocate NOT fighting it, in order to reduce to surplus population.)
• Boston – swine flu panic led to prison uprising.
• No seasonal respite from this flu apparent.

DC awash in the pig flu

Health officials in Washington say the number of cases are comparable with the seasonal flu in fall / winter.

US tips the 1 million mark in pig flu cases; resistance to drug found

So says the CDC. 

If the figures are correct, it is reassuring news, because it indicates that the fatality rate from swine flu is even lower than thought, says BBC medical correspondent Fergus Walsh.

Oh, I am reassured no end.  What happens when the damn thing mutates?

Funny thing, I immerse myself in news on a daily basis and heard nothing of this from US outlets.  If you want to know what’s going on in your own country, best look to the Brits for the info.

Also, check out: Roche Finds First H1N1 Case With Resistance to Tamiflu.

Pig Flu Alert Raised to Highest Level

A nurse in the 1918 Pandemic.

• The WHO says flu is unstoppable.
• First official pandemic in 41 years.
• Reuters:  U.S. has been there for weeks.
• Times of London asks, “What took them so long?”
• The WHO says its a sign of incresed spread, not lethality.
• Yet, a Boston biotech company says that lethality IS increasing.
• Now in more than 70 nations.
• ‘Working hypothesis’ among experts is virus to follow 1918 pattern.
• Risk to pregnant women said to be on the rise.

All Flu, All Day, All Night

• Gun-wielding flu Dad attacks school official.
• Even healthy people die of the pig flu.
• The NYT offers some speculation as to how the current mild pig flu could become a more deadly visitor.
• The Depression is hampering our ability to battle the flus.
• Luxury cruise line stuck by the pig flu.

Day Old Bread – Odds and Ends – 06/05/09

End of the line, Grasshopper.

• The WHO hold emergency meeting to avoid (again) raising the panic on pig flu to level 6.
• All of our strum und drang about bird flu apparently helps / will help us with the pig flu.
• Kung Fu’s death “may be accident” say genius cops. (Clue – No one commits suicide by strangling their yang.)
• Unemployment at at 25-year high.
• Department of Stoopid Criminals. AG DWI Homicide suspect busted boozing it up on Facebook.
• Sharon Tate killer, Manson Family member Susan Atkins, is dying, so she gets to have a parole hearing.

Day Old Bread – Odds & Ends – 05/27/09

• GM bankruptcy almost certain as bondholders tell company to stick their stock offer where the sun don’t shine.
• GM bankruptcy seen as a certain disaster for the economy.
• Survey of economists says Depression will end soon.  Roubini doesn’t think so.  My money’s on Dr. Doom.
• The contagion spreads while the WHO wonders if they jumped the gun on the pandemic alert number.  These people will shilly-shally and fart around till we all drop like flies.
• The Dear Leader would like to re-start the Korean War.

Day Old Bread – 05/26/09

• The Swine flu is a particularly tricky bug.
• It looks like you could get both pig flu and seasonal flu at the same time.  (By the way, please note, they’re really only telling the Chinese this, and not us.)
• Meanwhile, the World Bank is not being shy about the possibility of widespread civil unrest as a result of the Depression.
• Speaking of the Depression, many think it could go on for three more years.

H1N1 Update – It will probably kill us all.

Bring Out Your Dead! Bring Out Your Dead!

• CDC has shifted focus to predict how the pig flu will kill us all next October.  The guessing games goes on and on.
• The Japs and the Aussies have it now, too.
• The H1N1 has to get tougher still before we starting dropping like soldiers in 1918.
• Comes the day the pig flu marries the bird flu, we are the ones who will get fucked.
• The WHO says cases are on the rise – rapidly.
• UK Health Honcho reckons H1N1 more infectious than first thought. Duh!
• The pig flu’s target kills are between 20 and 29 years old. 1918!

Day Old Bread – Odds and Ends 05/09/09

Again, this pesky practice of law thing has kept me from the keyboard. 

• Don’t forget, Friday is bank failure day.
• Cheer up, at least they only found ONE additional pig disease that could kill us all.
• Two billion could get swine flu in two year long pandemic.
• Toyota books first ever annual loss.
• Unemployment rate jumps, but new claims apparently down.
• California is still on fire.  Oh, and they also might lose their stimulus money.

Letter From a Texas Doctor

I suppose this have been making the rounds.  The 23 month old he talks about eventually died.  And, apparently, there’s been another death in Texas.

After I returned from a public health meeting yesterday with community leaders and school officials in Comal County and Hays County,  Heather suggested I send an update to my patients in the area, because what we are hearing privately from the CDC and Health Department is different from what you are hearing in the media. Some of you know some of this, but I will just list what facts I know.

- The virus is infectious for about 2 days prior to symptom onset

- Virus spreads more than 7 days after symptom onset (possibly as long as 9 days) (this is more unusual than ordinary flu)

- Since it is such a novel (new) virus, there is no “herd immunity,” so the “attack rate” is very high. This is the percentage of people who come down with a virus if exposed. Almost everyone who is exposed to this virus will become infected, though not all will be symptomatic. That is much higher than seasonal flu, which averages 10-15%. The “clinical attack rate” estimation from CDC and WHO may be around 40-50%. This is the number of people who show symptoms. This is a huge number. It is hard to convey the seriousness of this to those outside of the medical fields.

- The virulence (deadliness) of this virus is as bad here as in Mexico , and there are folks on ventilators here in the US , right now. This has not been in the media, but a 23 month old in Houston is fighting for his life, and a pregnant woman just south of San Antonio is fighting for her life. In Mexico , these folks might have died already, but here in the US , folks are getting Tamiflu or Relenza quickly, and we have ready access to ventilators. What this means is that within a couple of weeks, regional hospitals will likely become overwhelmed.

- Some of the kids with positive cases in Comal County have had more than 70 contacts before diagnosis as a minimum figure.

- There are 10-25 times more actual cases (not “possible” cases — actual), than what is being reported in the media. The way they fudge on reporting this is that it takes 3 days to get the confirmatory nod from the CDC on a given viral culture, but based on epidemiological grounds, we know that there are more than 10 cases for each “confirmed” case right now.

- During the night, we crossed the threshold for the definition of a WHO, Phase 6 global pandemic. This has not happened in any of our lifetimes so far.. We are in uncharted territory.

- They are advising President Obama to declare an emergency sometime in the next 72-96 hours. This may not happen, but if it doesn’t, I will be surprised. When this happens, all public gathering will be cancelled for 10 days minimum.

- I suggest all of us avoid public gatherings. Outdoor activities are not as likely to lead to infection.. It is contained areas and close contact that are the biggest risk.

- Tamiflu is running out. There is a national stockpile, but it will have to be carefully managed for law enforcement and first responders as it is not enough to treat the likely number of infections when this is full-blown. I don’t think there is a big supply of Relenza, but I do not know those numbers. If I had to choose, I would take Relenza, as I think it gets more drug to the affected tissue than Tamiflu.

- You should avoid going to the ER if you think you have been exposed or are symptomatic. ER’s south of here are becoming overwhelmed today– and I mean that — already. It is coming in waves, but the waves are getting bigger.

- It appears that this flu produces a distinctive “hoarseness” in many victims. The symptoms, in general, match other flu’s; namely, sore throat, body aches, headache, cough, and fever. What is not too common in regular flu cycles is vomiting and diarrhea which seems to be associated with this, further dehydrating victims. Some have all these symptoms, while others may have only one or two.

- N-Acetyl-Cysteine — a nutritional supplement available at the health food store or Wimberley Pharmacy, has been shown to prevent or lessen the severity of influenza. I suggest 1200mg, twice a day for adults, and 600mg twice a day in kids over 12. It would be hard to get kids under 12 to take it, but you could try opening the capsules and putting it on yogurt. For 40 pounds and up, 300-600 mg twice a day, for less than 40 pounds, half that.

- Oscillococinum, a homeopathic remedy, has been vindicated as quite effective in a large clinical trial in Europe , with an H1N1 variant. You can buy this at Hill Country Natural Foods, or the Wimberley Pharmacy.

I will try to keep everyone posted if I have any new information. Meanwhile, don’t be afraid, stay informed and try to avoid infection. The fewer people infected the easier it will be for our public officials to manage it.

If any of my patients become ill, or suspect infection, call the office, do not come without calling and DO NOT go to the ER. If one member in a family is identified all would be given the Tamiflu or Relenza (that is normal course of action) if there is enough distributed to fill prescriptions. Public health stated that one family member identified or suspected to have contracted the flu it will require the whole family to be ?quarantined? in their own home until enough time has passed for the remaining household to have contracted it or be considered infection free ( 7 to 10 days per person). As another suggestion, if any member of the family is on routine medication- fill those prescriptions now. Have plenty fluids, Motrin, soups, etc available and make contingency plans in case your family is affected.

Marc

Dr. Marcus Gitterle, M.D.

600 N Union Ave

Christus Santa Rosa Hospital – New Braunfels

New Braunfels , TX 78130

Specialties

Family Practice

Emergency Medicine

H1N1 Swine Avian Human Pig Bird Mexican Flu – It’s All About Next October

1918 Flu Poster.

• U.N. health officials warn that a second wave of the swine flu virus could “strike with a vengeance.”
• WHO chief warns of second wave of swine flu.
• Experts fear the virus that has gone from humans back into pigs in at least one case could mutate further before crossing back into humans again.
• Swine flu: Warnings that second wave may strike later in 2009.
• Don’t cry for me, Argentina.  The Southern Hemisphere may get a wallop as their winter approaches.
• Newsweek gets the memo: Scientists prepare for a more severe strain of influenza that spreads as easily as the swine flu but is as lethal as SARS.

Waiting for the Next Mexican Flu Shoe to Drop

Thermal monitors check temps on incoming passengers in S. Korean airport.

Very quiet day.  It does seem like everyone’s sitting around waiting to see what happens next. (My search engine traffic on the term “swine” is WAY down today.) Maybe some more banks will fold and that can take our attention away from the coming plague.  As I have said here, my bet is that this bout with the flu is relatively mild, but the shit will hit the fan in September or October. 

Here’s some of the latest:

• WHO: As of 06:00 GMT, 1 May 2009, (that would be 1 AM Mountain) 11 countries have officially reported 331 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection.
• CDC: The United States Government has reported 141 laboratory confirmed human cases in 19 states, including one death.
• Mexico has reported 156 confirmed human cases of infection, including nine deaths. Meanwhile, one of their top health officials says the WHO dropped the ball, wasting over a week before kicking into action.
• Here in New Mexico, state officials expect test results from two cases later today.
• The flu was confirmed in Hong Kong today bringing the number of countries infected up to 12.

All Swine Flu, All Day, All Night

Masses Masked.

• Swine flu fears grip Mexico. Suspicious of Gov’t.
• FP looks at the costs of a pandemic.
• Swine flu not from swine?  I give up.  How about calling it TexMex flu?
• Swine flu count rises to 154, raises specter of level 6 pandemic. Has nothing to do with Senator Specter.
• Forth Worth closes all schools.
• Mexico shuts down country.
• CDC says Mexican TexMex Non-Swine flu now confirmed in 11 states.
• WHO says its in 11 countries.  11 seems to  be the magic number today.
• Vice President practices medicine on morning talk show.  Joe, Joe, Joe, Joe, Joe, Joe….

Why This First Round of Swine Flu May Not Be the Worst

UPDATE:
Apparently, most other serious flu outbreaks have behaved much the same way as the 1918 flu.

Attached herewith is a diagram of death during the 1918 Pandemic.  Notice that the deaths stayed fairly constant from June though September of 1918.  Then, in October, the shit hit the fan.  Deaths suddenly spiked, and October of 1918 was hell for undertakers.  Starting in November, the death rate dropped like a rock.  In the early part of 1919 there was a slight uptick, but nowhere near the October level.  Oh, and BTW, the 1918 flu was also a strain of H1N1 virus, the same as the current swine flu.