Department of Pot Calling Kettle Black

Sanctinonious snot Tucker Calrson has the gall to call Jon Stewart sanctimonius.

Daily Gloom -03/10/09

• Experts sees consumer credit crunch coming.  I still say watch out for the big national car loan default.
• Measured by 1930’s methods, we are at 19% unemployment.
• Feds prep for big bank failure.
• Brooks charts course that Republicans should, but won’t take.

Daily Gloom – 02/22/09

• Expert: 220,000 stores of major retailers may close in 2009. Just think of that.
• Popular Rage grows as Depression deepens.
• 100,000 protest in Dublin over government’s handling of economic crisis.

Daily Gloom – 02/21/09

• Volcker says this may be WORSE than the Great Depression.   

  

  State Department is concerned about you hanging out with these ladies.

• State Department warns travelers to stay away from Mexican whores and drug dealers.
• GM stock same price as in 1934.
• 400,000 UK families may lose homes.

Daily Gloom – 02/19/09

Mexican troops deployed in war on drug cartels.

• Brzezinski: ‘Hell, There Could Be Even Riots’. 
• MSM finally paying attention to deflation.
• Dow falls to 6 year low.
• In case you didn’t know it, Mexico is having a civil war.
• Fed Economist: Worst Job Losses in 50 Years Ahead.
• Fed Banker: United States might suffer a dangerous bout of deflation.

Daily Gloom – 02/18/09

• GM considers cuts of 47,000 +  jobs.
  

  Crime dramatically increases in a bad economy.

• Goodyear to cut 5,000 jobs.  Nobody can afford tires.
• Brink’s Home Security Profits Up.  People are preparing for the unrest to come.
• Asian unemployment will continue to balloon – 7.2 million more possible.

Daily Gloom – 02/14/09

• David Brooks lays out the Worst Case Scenario.
• Large US banks on the brink of insolvency.
• Next Stop: Weimar Republic – globally.

Daily Gloom – 02/10/09

• Markets tank on Bank Plan news. DJIA down 382 points.
• British Cabinet minister fears Depression will lead to a new rise of Fascism.  Second day in a row – Paging Corporal Hitler…..
  

  Fall of the Weimar Republic.

• As jobs market worsens, recruits flock to military.
• U.S. wholesale inventories dropped by a record 1.4 percent in December and sales plunged.

My Favorite Economist on the Current Depression

Nouriel Roubini, 0ne of the few to correctly predict the current Depression, frequently publishes a column in Forbes.  They are all excellent reading.  The current issue is no exception.

I believe the U.S. economy is only half way through a recession that will be the longest and most severe in the post-war period. U.S. gross domestic product will continue to contract throughout 2009 for a cumulative output loss of 5% and a recession that will last close to two years.

As with James Howard Kunstler, the watchword with Roubini for 2009 is contraction.

In my view, personal consumption will continue to contract quite sharply throughout 2009 as a result of negative wealth effects from housing and equity market losses, the disappearance of home equity withdrawal from the second half of 2008, mounting job losses, tighter credit conditions and high debt servicing ratios (the debt to income ratio went from 70% in the 90s, to 100% in 2000, to 140% now).

Daily Gloom – 1/8/09

A New Feature to allow you a quick look at real bummers o’ the day.

• Our Barry says that if Congress doesn’t get its shit together, this Depression thing could go on for years. (CNBC)
• Good old 2008 was the worse holiday sales season in 40 years.  Even Wal-Mart sorta sucked, and not for the usual reasons they suck, in general. (MSNBC)
• Border “surge” contemplated.  Great.  We’ll probably INVADE Mexico next.  Didn’t we do this once before? (NYT)

Day Old Bread – Odds and Ends – January 7, 2009

• Stocks Take a Beating – Fear and Loathing on Wall Street.  (CNN)
• Oil Plunges - 12% on US inventory report.  (Yahoo)
• Salary Cut – better than a job cut. (I guess.) (CNN)

2009 Predictions so stark they scare the Bejesus out of ME

Tin Foil Hat Liner.

I like to joke about my hat I keep lined with tin foil for my journeys around the Internets.  While I don’t think I am quite that bad (yet), I do keep tabs on the wilder bunch out in the blogosphere and I am most highly amused when they promote a seemingly silly idea that eventually turns out to be right.  (I love it when truth comes from children or insane people.) However, there are some prognostications out there that scare the living shit even out of me.  I read one such today and I pass on the highlights below. 

 Warning:  This is not for the faint of heart.

 These insights come from SurvivalBlog.com, which frequently has some really good basic preparedness advice.  If you can overlook the God stuff, or if it doesn’t bother you, they are worth a look now and again. 

 

Day Old Bread – Odds and Ends – January 6, 2009

• Alcoa to Axe - 15,000 workers, drastically reduce production.  (CNBC)
• Get Back, Jack – Roland Burris turned away from Senate doors.  (MSNBC)
• Russians – turn off the gas. EU Freezes.(NYT)
• US Factory Orders – Down Sharply in November. (CNBC)

The “D” Word Grows in Respectability

The very capable, eminently mainstream economist Paul Krugman is now inching toward the use of the “D” word, something tin-foil-in-the-hat nuts like me have been bandying about with gay abandon for a year now.  Writing in the NYT, Krugman admits we aren’t as smart as we thought after all, especially when it comes to the task of “Depression Prevention” which a lot of academic ass-hats thought they had whipped:

It turns out, however, that preventing depressions isn’t that easy after all. Under Mr. Bernanke’s leadership, the Fed has been supplying liquidity like an engine crew trying to put out a five-alarm fire, and the money supply has been rising rapidly. Yet credit remains scarce, and the economy is still in free fall.

Day Old Bread – Odds and Ends – January 4, 2009

• Our Barry’s Plans – $300 Billion in Tax cuts.  (NYT)
• Second Hand Rose – Better the second time around, for resale shops, especially.  (CNN)
• Better Late – than never.  Economists say things will suck this year.  Finally. (Financial Times)
• China’s Factories – on the bum.  Bad numbers for December. (BBC)

It’s Official: It’s a Depression, so says The Economist

One of the world’s most influential publications has decreed our present financial slump, recession, deflation, stag deflation, is now officially a Depression.  That’s right, kids.  The Economist, the granddaddy of all the financial pundits, has spoken.   Welcome to the 1930’s.  Not really.  But, sorta.

Day Old Bread – January 1, 2009 – Happy New Year Edition

• Ball Broadcast – Our Barry plans worldwide broadcast of inaugural ball held exclusively for military and their families.  (Politico) This goes hand in glove with what will be Michele’s primary area of concern – military families.
• UK Economy – 1,600 People a day to lose jobs. (Telegraph UK)
• Thai Draggin’ – New Boss warns on bad economy.  (Guardian UK)
• Pain Downunder – Aussies warned of 8% unemployment this year. (The Australian)

Quote of the Day: Contraction in 2009.

The big theme for 2009 economically will be contraction. The end of the cheap energy era will announce itself as the end of conventional “growth” and the shrinking back of activity, wealth, and populations. People will starve, lose their homes, lose incomes and status, and lose the security of living in peaceful societies. It will become clear that the Long Emergency is underway.

 

James Howard Kunstler

Day Old Bread – Odds and Ends – December 30, 2008

• Israeli Navy Rams – boat bringing relief supplies to Palestine.  Reporter and Congressman on board.  OOOPS! (CNN)
• Mitch the Bitch – plans to oppose Obama stimulus. Typical. (WaPo)
• No Surprise II – racist CD seen helping GOP Candidate. (Politico) QUOTE: “Alabama Republican committeeman Paul Reynolds said the fact the Saltsman sent him a CD with the song on it “didn’t bother me one bit.”  This is who they are, folks.
• Consumer Confidence – falls to new low. (CNBC)
• Home Prices – fall 18%. (CNN)
• 10 percent – of Florida is on foodstamps.  But, hey, this is no depression. (Palm Beach Post)

Top 5 Predictions for 2009

Why should I be any different from any other idiot with a blog?  Here goes.

Civil Unrest will grow and spread next year.

1. Civil Unrest will grow around the world, particularly in Asia.  I see large scale demonstrations and perhaps rioting and a rise in crime unfolding in China in late Spring or early Summer.  This will not be contained to the cities, either, but will be widespread across the country as the reverse migration of laid-off, unpaid factory workers go back home to the small villages and towns.  Unemployed young men with nothing to do but sit around all day in groups, smoking cigarettes and drinking tea (or whatever) in the heat of summer is a recipe for disaster.  China’s own leaders have said they need at least 7% economic growth to stave off demonstrations and unrest and no one I have read is forecasting much above 5%. The same could be true in India, where ethnic and political hatreds add some spice to the soup as well.

2. Deflation followed by inflation in the US and possibly hyper-inflation elsewhere.  This is only a question of “when” and not “if.”  The timing is unclear, as deflation is already with us.  When they REALLY crank up the presses at the Treasury, then we’ll know.